How do you solve a problem like terrorism?

How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?

The British blogosphere is up in arms, some of them quite literally. We’re under attack by nihilistic terrorists, with whom there is no negotiation. Their goals are ludicrous enough that it is almost impossible to countenance considering them, and thus we are at war. Even if it were possible and even moral to withdraw all of our, and all of the the rest of the West’s, troops from the Middle East, a move which would almost certainly destroy any chance of democracy taking root in their soil and which would condemn the people to rule by despots, dictators, and fundamentalist medieval-mindset clerics, we still shouldn’t do it for purely strategic reasons. This post was prompted by this, over at Chicken Yoghurt, where a few of us agreed that we really don’t know much about terrorism, and that the discussion that the British blogosphere is having is missing the point.

As I said over at Justin’s place, I’ve seen the bombings used in the last few weeks as an rallying call for support for mass redistribution of wealth, the closure of faith schools, the importance of increasing the size of the welfare state, massively decreased civil liberties, pulling out of Iraq, redoubling our efforts in Iraq, pulling out of the entire middle East, abandoning Israel to its fate, and I’d guess that Polly Toynbee somehow managed to squeeze Sure Start in there, although I can’t be certain about that last one.

Indeed, Polly did talk about Sure Start a few days later, but didn’t make a connection to the bombings, a small mercy for which I am eternally grateful. All of this talk though seems to me to be trying to fit a new phenomenon into our existing cultural/political framework. Not that terrorism itself is particularly new as such, but this brand of almost goal-less terrorism is certainly novel. It’s what Iain Banks called an Outside Context Problem – something so new, so different, that it shocks the world, that we don’t know how to react to it or deal with it, something that we can only hope is benign. Unfortunately for us, this most definitely is not benign. So our choice is stark – we either give in to their demands, or we carry on with the unhappy and uneasy status quo, accepting that some casualties on both sides are a feature of this war, or we try to win. I am voting for option 3. The problem is that not many people seem to have got past the point of accepting that this is new and different, and that our current toolset is inadequate to deal with the problem. Let’s go back over that list again. Over the last three weeks, I’ve seen people attempt to analyse the root causes of terrorism, and they have come up with the following:

i) ‘despair, poverty, alienation, and rootlessness’
ii) ‘all religion’
iii) ‘Falluja’
iv) ‘capitalism’
v) and of course, ‘multiculturalism’

and so on. Many more have put forward more theories about why we’re under attack, but few, if any, have put forward a coherent set of ideas about what we should do to respond. I suppose the unspoken corollary of the root cause theories listed above is that if only we do something about poverty, alienation, religious intervention in the state, our ‘imperialism’ in the Middle East, and so on, terrorism will just pack it’s bags and head on home, satisfied with a job well done. I don’t find this reasoning compelling, for all sorts of reasons, but chiefly because if we allow terrorism to influence our policy just once, it will become a more legitimate form of political expression. The other big reason is that I don’t think any of these things really cause terrorism, as such. It is certainly more likely to be a combination of factors, but I don’t think analysing it in terms of our own priors and prejudices is going to help. It’s an Outside Context Problem.

The question that I find most interesting is ‘what can we do?’, and I think there are actually some straightforward decisions we can make immediately to start reducing our risk. This is probably more contentious, but I thought I’d suggest a couple of things, then throw the floor open for debate. Maybe the wisdom of crowds here can give us some decent answers. For our less moderate, ‘nuke those towelheads back into the Stone Age’-type readers, please don’t suggest we nuke anything. I’m pretty sure our nuclear deterrent is well past it’s use-by date, anyway.

Firstly, we need to be far less tolerant of extremism within our midst. I’m as close to being a free speech fundamentalist as it’s really possible to be, but on this issue, I think there is some give. We shouldn’t be allowing imams to preach without some form of qualification to do so. Priests and vicars go through a seminary school to become clergy. I’m not aware that imams (or the correct equivalent – I’m not really sure that the terminology is correct – muftis, mullahs?) go through anything similar. If not, they should be doing, and extremism should be rooted out at that point. If that’s impractical, we need to get ruthless about deporting foreign-born clerics who preach intolerance and hatred. The ones who are British born are tougher to deal with, obviously, but certainly they should be under surveillance by the security services at the very least.

On immigration, we have to realise that there is a generation of immigrants that we have failed to integrate successfully, and particularly for Pakistani immigrants into the north of England, we screwed them over pretty badly when the textile industry died out. Their kids have grown up seeing their parents struggle financially, seeing overt racism and segregation, and the decline in our own culture, so they turn to other sources of authority. Simplistic, certainly, but there is at least a grain of truth there. What should we do about it? We need to break up the ghettoisation that has occurred in some of our cities, although as yet I have no idea how to do that (tax breaks for non-Muslims moving into predominantly Muslim postcodes?). We also probably need to limit certain types of immigration, like chain migration, or massive influxes of unskilled labour.

Tied to this, we should be asserting British culture aggressively. By that, I don’t mean going on about fish-and-chips and wet bank holiday weekends, but I do mean that we need to regain some pride in who we are and what we believe in. The political atmosphere of progressiveness and permanent revolution tends, I believe, to enforce the sense that we are progressing from something bad to something more positive. It suggests that what we have is worthless, or at least badly flawed. It isn’t. For all the moaning about Britain I do, especially about our politics, it really is the greatest country in the world, and I wouldn’t live anywhere else by choice. More people need to be saying that, and saying it publicly, and saying it often. We should have citizenship tests, and pledges of allegiance, and all that stuff, but it’s peripheral to the pride in our country that all of that represents. And we should fly the flag on all public buildings.

Finally from me, we should be setting an example of what justice and fairness and tolerance are all about. We need to stand up for our civil liberties when it is so easy to sweep them away. The police don’t need 3 months to question a terror suspect, or we end up with things like this. We should be celebrating our freedoms and our society’s virtues, not throwing them away.

I apologise for not having any silver bullets for this beast. It’s new, it’s different. Our current thinking and mindsets aren’t set up to accommodate its otherness, so there are no easy off-the-shelf solutions. It will take time to solve, and it is going to involve more innocents dying, but the alternatives are far worse. So, the floor is open – what else would you do and why?

49 comments
  1. dearieme said:

    “poverty” and “capitalism” are presumably offered as acts of dishonesty? “all religion” as an act of stupidity? (It’s these bloody Baptist bombers again!) “Falluja” as intellectual error? “Multiculturalism” is about a doctrine that leaves us particularly vulnerable, but is presumably not a cause. That leaves “despair, alienation, and rootlessness” which may indeed matter, but are not unique to Muslims. Must try harder!

  2. Andrew said:

    Well, click the links and have a read, but I don’t want to argue the toss over causes. I don’t think it is helpful or particularly relevant. I want solutions.

  3. dsquared said:

    I’ve never found this one particularly confusing. The root causes of terrorism are that 1) Muslims regard themselves as a community (maybe they shouldn’t but it is a sociological fact that they do) and 2) lots of Muslims, to varying degrees, believe that this community is under attack, by us. To be honest, on 2) we’ve given them quite a lot of material to work with.

    The solution seems equally straightforward to me. If you have had the misfortune to be attacked by hornets, and then had the further, somewhat more culpable misfortune to stick your dick in a hornet’s nest, then there are only two steps to need to take:

    1) Don’t stick your dick in any more hornets’ nests
    2) Start killing hornets.

    If this problem gets solved at all, it gets solved by long, dull, attritional police work. That’s how terrorist organisations get run to earth in those cases where they’re not dealt with by negotiation. Any plans of grand strategy aimed at getting rid of the terrorists at a stroke through some polciy iniative will tend to fall into the category “things which don’t kill any hornets” or “things which, on closer inspection, bring the national glans into contact with a hornet’s nest”.

  4. Andrew said:

    It’s a nice analogy, but it isn’t that useful. Firstly, it’s difficult to tell whether you’ve killed a nasty stinging hornet, or just a harmless innocent going-about-his-own-business hornet. The terrorists have been sensible enough so far not to wear black and yellow stripes to warn us off. So how do we ensure that we don’t apply the long, dull, attritional policing to ordinary decent Muslims, rather than the nutty extremist dick-stinging variety?

  5. EU Serf said:

    With the exception of chucking out the preachers of hate and not giving passports to immigrants that are convicted of serious crimes, I see no easy solutions.

    As Andrew says its a case of long laborious police work.

    Voting against Red Ken at the next Mayoral Election might help as well.

    Andrew says: Actually, it was D-Squared who raised the police work bit, but I don’t disagree about Red Ken…

  6. Rob Read said:

    Take something the terrorists value and hold it. Mecca for instance.

    Stop subsidising immigration & make Asylum funded only by charity. Koran exposure + education produces cognitive dissonance which leads to terrorism (Faith: KoranState = Utopia, Reality: KoranState = Shithole >=> destroy evidence of reality). Anyone who gets asylum in the UK knows they are only there because of the genuine generosity of the UK public.

    Nationalise Islam in exactly the same way the CoE is run. Nothing could defang an organisation as quickly as state targets could. (King Henry VIII option)

    Evolve a less aggressive muslim by provoking combat on preferable terms and annihilating islamic attackers before they can reproduce. (Larry Niven Puppeteer option).

  7. Andrew: I’m not sure I’m comfortable restricting freedom of speech (however repulsive) in the way you suggest. More practically: how about prosecuting those that show jihadi head-chopping videos on their websites as accessories to murder after-the-fact? It strikes me there’s a strong analogy with kiddie-porn web hosts.

  8. With the exception of chucking out the preachers of hate and not giving passports to immigrants that are convicted of serious crimes, I see no easy solutions.

    I don’t think that those are easy solutions, but let’s start with those. Many of the preachers of hate are wanted in other countries for terrorist crimes: right, let’s deport them.

    Or, of course, would that be hornet-nest-dick-sticking behaviour? Would that, at this stage, increase the hatred felt towards us by the indigenous Muslims? Ah, stuff it; let’s do it anyway.

    And we do not give asylum to those wanted for crimes in other countries. That will be an excellent start.

    As dSquared said, Muslims tend to regard themselves as a community: as such they tend to ghetto-ize themselves and are often, in the many cases of anecdotal evidence that I’ve heard, not terribly pleased to see white people move in; thus I don’t think that tax breaks will work. Nor will it work, the other way.

    In any case, tightening our border controls has to be done. And no draconian legislation is needed for that.

  9. Katherine said:

    You say that withdrawing from the Middle East would be “a move which would almost certainly destroy any chance of democracy taking root in their soil and which would condemn the people to rule by despots, dictators, and fundamentalist medieval-mindset clerics”.

    Sorry, but I really do consider that to be Western arrogance at its worst. You assume that the people of the Middle East have no capability or right to find their own way, and in their own time, whilst conveniently ignoring that many of the despots and dictators of the Middle East (e.g. the Shah of Iran, Saddam Hussein, the current Saudi Royals) have been supported by Western governments to the great detriment of ordinary people.

    Do you think we in the West would feel grateful and happy if those in the Middle East felt it was their duty to occupy and impose a particular electoral system on us for our own good, or do you think we might find it patronising and an insult to our intelligence and right to self-determination?

  10. Trouble with your theory, Katherine, is that there are as many revolting regimes/movements in the Muslim/ME area that haven’t been “supported by Western governments to the great detriment of ordinary people”: the Taleban, Iranian theocracy, al-Qaeda et al. Should we just screw the people who suffer under this shit and respect their sovereign governments’ rights to self-determination? Personally, I go way over the heads of government and appeal to basic principles of human rights, which find all such regimes repulsive. And I suspect the main point about them is that they have no wish to “impose a particular electoral system” on us at all, unless you consider Sharia a new form of proportional representation, where only Muhammad, as interpreted exclusively by despotic theocrats, has a vote?

  11. Andrew said:

    J: Yeah, I’d go with that.

    Rob: I’m not sure whether your suggestions are serious or not, but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume they are. The first one won’t work – creating a very visible symbol of superiority and oppression is, I would humbly suggest, more likely to lead to increased extremism, as recruitment becomes a simple matter of pointing to Mecca and saying ‘Huh?’. Your second suggestion may work for foreign born extremists, but we should be controlling this problem with better border controls and limited immigration, not some libertarian wet dream policy. It also does nothing for home grown terrorists, who really aren’t going to be happy about your seizing of Mecca. Your third option would have some merit if Islam was predominantly British in origin. It isn’t. Your fourth option suggests some genetic predisposition towards terrorism, a proposal that I’m sure our finest biologists are working towards proving as we speak. Is it because they is olive-skinned? Will this eugenic policy work on those pesky Irish Catholics? The scientific world demands an answer.

    Katherine: Apology accepted. While people are attempting to blow us up, I don’t much care for their religious compatriots rights to self-determination. Yes, I agree that we shouldn’t be propping up corrupt regimes, but nor should we assume that withdrawal will lead to a people’s quiet revolution, and the blooming of liberal democracy, not least because the levers of power and money in the Middle East are still held by despots and clerics. Your equating of our attempts to spread democracy in the Middle East with a theoretical attempt by Middle Eastern powers to presumably spread theocratic dictatorship to the West is interesting. If you believe our political and cultural system to be inferior, or at best equal to one where the simple things in life like the rights of women to walk the streets without wearing a full body suit, or the rights of homosexuals not to be stoned to death, or all those other human rights issues that left-wingers get so het up about are ignored, then that would be a sensible argument. If not, then I doubt we’ll find much common ground to discuss.

    You assume that the people of the Middle East have no capability or right to find their own way, and in their own time

    No, I don’t. I’m sure they could find their own way given enough time and a sufficient supply of innocent lives to experiment with. I just don’t want to suffer while they do it. I also don’t want them to suffer, which is why we have a moral duty to help them find their own way as quickly as is practicable. If that means removing dictators and clerics, that’s what we should do.

  12. Benedict said:

    I must say I’m a bit worried by all of this, thousands of words have been written on this topic in this forum and many others discussing many different responses to the threat of terrorism. These range from, “give them what they want, to nuke the rage heads”. Either way I think that we are giving them too much credence and power. Without seeming calous, many more people have died from road accidents and cancer than from bombs. I agree there may be more of an issue around chemical/ nuclear weapons but at the moment we are scared by a threat that, although real, is not large scale enough to dictate national policy. I am a democrat, but in this case maybe I shouldn’t be (Madrid)…
    We should be much more worried about the reaction to all of this than about the acts themselves and we need to keep a more focussed eye on the middle east for more serious problems- not many words have been written in this forum about the potential risk involved in Iraq moving closer to Iran after the Iraqi elections. Where would that leave Dubya? Either he is playing a long game involving intervening in Iran, or he has completely buggered it up, with an amazing lack of vision…
    As for the terrorists, they should be hunted down, (without putting your dick into the hornets nest!), and treated as the nutters they are. The IRA didn’t bring the UK down, and neither should this lot. As for the “alienation”, “plight of the poor” etc I agree that we should make more and greater efforts, but this should be because it is the right thing to do from a moral point of view, from a human rights point of view and for our long term benefit. Anyone want to point this out to Dubya?

  13. Phil E said:

    If this problem gets solved at all, it gets solved by long, dull, attritional police work.

    And, most importantly, by draining the pool of sympathisers, & hence interrupting the supply of terrorists-to-be. There are two ways to do that. One is to ensure that nobody who might turn into a sympathiser has any legitimate grievances which might push them over the edge. The other is by shouting “Down with terrorists! Down with terrorist sympathisers! No compromise with sympathisers with terrorists! Down with all who would compromise with terrorist sympathisers!” and carrying on until there’s nobody left… which is pretty much what the Italians did with their terrorist problem in the late 70s. It worked, eventually, although the immediate effect was to make the more committed terrorists think fuck it, if that’s what they think of us… and do the same as before, only more so. It also screwed up the political system rather drastically. It’d be a shame to make that mistake again.

  14. My two pennies’ worth…

    Obviously with Andrew on most of the proposals. As a fully paid-up member of the GWOT Hawk conspiracy, I’ll happily admit that this wave of terrorism isn’t going to end up with West under the Caliphate. But what could happen is that we withdraw from the world, and allow bigger beasts – China, say – to rule without challenge while we slip into a lasting decline.

    Still, this isn’t a quick thing, either. The last century of international politics has been so stable, around the eruptions of major all-out wars, that we forget quite how dangerous a place the world can be. This is what we’re learning again – and in this case, the war on Islamic fundamentalist terror will probably be a 20 or 30 year campaign, and we’re in year 3.

    This isn’t, though, ‘police work’ on its own – there will be military actions (as in Afghanistan and in Iraq) along the way, and not just those directly against al-Qa’eda and its affiliates. I supported (and support) the Iraq campaign as a part of long-term goal of changing the Middle East’s political environment. I do though question whether we’ve got the stomach or the spine for the continued hard work that all this involves – if we haven’t, we might as well give up on continuing Western dominance (it should go without saying that I think Western dominance is “a good thing”).

    Re dicks-in-hornets’-nests… First, I agree with Andrew that it isn’t quite as simply as dsquared’s analogy suggests here. Second, I agree with J that we can hardly be indifferent to goings-on in the Middle East. Third, a hard truth: for the time being, that thick black stuff under the desert makes it pretty unthinkable we’d just ignore what goes on in the Middle East.

    And Katherine:

    “Do you think we in the West would feel grateful and happy if those in the Middle East felt it was their duty to occupy and impose a particular electoral system on us for our own good, or do you think we might find it patronising and an insult to our intelligence and right to self-determination?”

    Nope on either count really. I wouldn’t be happy and I wouldn’t find it patronising. I’d find it slightly surprising that we’d lost a war to countries manifestly weaker than ours, and I’d find it outrageous that my country’s manifestly wonderful traditions that have kept us free from tyranny for so long are being trampled on by, erm, Middle Eastern tyrants (unless it’s the Israelis or the Iraqis doing the invading, where the question becomes more open). Perhaps we should’ve left the Nazi regime intact in 1945, rather than occupy and impose a new system on Germany?

  15. KathyF said:

    Actually, people who’ve got a lot more expertise in the area of terrorism and its causes have a pretty good idea of why terrorism exists and therefore how to control it.

    Have you read the American Conservative magazine’s review of Dying to Win?

    I too find it silly that bloggers with no experience in foreign policy are presuming to know how to control terrorism, but listening to those who’ve studied it seems like a pretty good idea to me. Richard Clark is another solid voice on the issue.

  16. chris said:

    I’m not aware that imams (or the correct equivalent – I’m not really sure that the terminology is correct – muftis, mullahs?) go through anything similar. If not, they should be doing, and extremism should be rooted out at that point.

    I don’t see how telling Moslems to change the methods by which they have chosen their spiritual leaders for the last fifteen hundred years is going to make anybody’s life easier. If I was asked to concoct a recipe for ensuring that no further dialogue between Moslems and the secular majority ever took place, this would be in it.

    Which is a pity, because a lot of the rest of Andrew’s article is good sense.

  17. Katherine said:

    Jarndyce: you seem to think that the Taleban, Iranian theocracy and al-Qaeda have emerged entirely independently of the West. Wrong. The Taleban grew out of the mujahideen, which fought the Soviet resistance, supported by – guess who – the West. And the Taleban were giving whacking great sums of money by the US right up to 9/11 for their brilliant work in stopping drugs coming to the West by cutting people’s hands off. The same could arguably be argued for al-Qaeda, since Osama bin Laden was involved in the same mujahideen movement.

    Iranian theocracy might not be supported by the West, but the rise of Iranian theocracy can be directly linked to the regime of the Iranian Shah, which was. Western intervention in Egypt and Iran, for example, were not experienced as freedoms since they benefited the rich elites to the detriment of the poor, uneducated masses. That is the reason why the Iranian revolution was, and continues to be, presented as a revolution for the benefit of the poor and dispossessed.

    The record of mostly European intervention in the Middle East is woeful, from the British occupation of Iraq after the First World War, to our current support for the hideous regime in Saudi Arabia.

  18. Katherine said:

    Andrew:

    You say “nor should we assume that withdrawal will lead to a people’s quiet revolution, and the blooming of liberal democracy, not least because the levers of power and money in the Middle East are still held by despots and clerics.” I do not assume anything, but you assumed that a withdrawal would, and I quote, “would almost certainly destroy any chance of democracy taking root”.

    The point with that is that assuming anything is ridiculous. Thinking that one can read the future of the politics of a region is ridiculous. Long term events are unpredictable because we do not have crystal balls. The political aims of democratic systems are usually short term, not long. If politicians, or us, were capable of thinking and predicting long term we would not be in the huge mess that we are now.

    I do not assume anything, least of all the West’s right or ability to ‘nation build’ and direct the politics of other nations, cultures and societies.

  19. Andrew said:

    I do not assume anything

    least of all responsibility to fix the problem, it would seem.

  20. Katherine said:

    Andrew you say:

    “Your equating of our attempts to spread democracy in the Middle East with a theoretical attempt by Middle Eastern powers to presumably spread theocratic dictatorship to the West is interesting.” Perhaps I was not clear, but that was not my intention. I was not equating specifics, but generally. My point is simply that people do not like to be told by others what they should or should not do. Substitute Australians, Russians or little green men from Mars into my original statement if you wish and my point is the same – people want to work out their own problems, which is why they generally react badly to being invaded “for their own good”.

    You also say:

    “I also don’t want them to suffer, which is why we have a moral duty to help them find their own way as quickly as is practicable. If that means removing dictators and clerics, that’s what we should do.”

    Don’t you see the contradiction inherent in that statement? We’ll help them find their own way, by doing things we consider to be the best for them? And also, what on earth makes you think that the summary ‘removal’ of dictators and clerics will result in sweetness and light? That was the rather naive assumption of the US government in removing Saddam Hussein – that the people of Iraq would throw flowers in our path. And hasn’t that gone well? And how can we possibly take about a moral duty to remove dictators and clerics with a straight face whilst simultaneously supporting the appalling regime in Saudi Arabia – a system so oppressive of women that they go to Iran for a break?

  21. Katherine said:

    Blimpish, you say:

    “Perhaps we should’ve left the Nazi regime intact in 1945, rather than occupy and impose a new system on Germany?”

    To try to draw a comparison with Nazi Germany is, I think, not possible. Nazi Germany was an invading force on our doorstep. If you look at the current situation, you will find that our troops are there, not the other way around. The analogy is inaccurate.

  22. Katherine said:

    Andrew:

    “least of all responsibility to fix the problem, it would seem. “?

    The responsibility I would like to see us assume is a long term commitment to stop messing people around for our own benefit, wring our hands, and then try to sort it out in a ham fisted fashion later on by imagining we are all powerful cultural sculptors. I think our ‘responsibility’ is to stop thinking of ourselves short term and then forget all about that when it blows up in our faces. We have lurched from crisis to crisis in the Middle East for most of this century – I think our responsibility is to look hard at our ‘efforts’ and stop thinking we can impose a solution each time.

    I draw your attention to my various comments about our continuing support of the monarchy of Saudi Arabia.

  23. Andrew said:

    people want to work out their own problems, which is why they generally react badly to being invaded “for their own good”.

    The point is that their problems have become our problems, because some of them decided to blow up some of us. At that point, as I said above, I really don’t give a crap about their rights to self-determination. I don’t think, that said, that it is helpful to conflate the issues with Iraq with the London bombings. The London bombers were homegrown, with parents of Pakistani origin – nothing to do with Iraq. The use of the war as a post-fact justification for terrorist atrocities I have already admitted is trivially true, but it doesn’t help. We can’t turn back time to uninvade Iraq, and anyone who insists on arguing the toss over Iraq either doesn’t understand this, or is wilfully ignoring that simple fact. It’s like the old joke about asking directions from an Irishman and being told ‘I wouldn’t start from here.’ Tough. We’re here. What do we do now?

    Don’t you see the contradiction inherent in that statement?

    Yes, but only because it’s badly worded, not because the sentiment is incorrect. I don’t consider other people’s rights to be paramount or even equal to ours when we are threatened. This underlies the concept of the nation state. In a choice between us and them, I’m going to pick us, not sit on the fence.

    And also, what on earth makes you think that the summary ‘removal’ of dictators and clerics will result in sweetness and light?

    I’m not sure I said that, but it wasn’t the impression I meant to leave. Removing the bad guys is the first step in a process. It isn’t the last step, by any means. Of course, Iraq isn’t a very good example of this at the moment, but it’s the first attempt. Hopefully we’ve learnt our lessons and next time we’ll attach a higher priority to the post-war planning.

    And how can we possibly take about a moral duty to remove dictators and clerics with a straight face whilst simultaneously supporting the appalling regime in Saudi Arabia – a system so oppressive of women that they go to Iran for a break?

    We shouldn’t be supporting that regime – I already conceded this point. But your wider point about this barring us from further action is just stupid. No one is perfect, and requiring people to be perfect before they are able to act would rule out an awful lot of action.

  24. Andrew said:

    Katherine: On your last comment, that would be an option if leaving those people alone would both completely remove the threat of terrorism from our shores, and also guarantee those people a basic standard of human rights. I don’t see that either would be automatically true.

  25. Katherine, I’m assuming you’re an incorrigible ironist, because my historical atlas doesn’t show Nazi Germany being what we’d normally think of as “an invading force on our doorstep” in 1945. Maybe you’ve been reading some recently declassified papers, but by that time, Nazi Germany was little threat to us – they were far more worried about the Red Army storming through Poland.

    And that, indeed, was precisely the point of the analogy, and why it still stands. Nazi Germany was an enemy that proved a threat to us – but we didn’t simply repel that threat, we took action against the nation that caused it, to teach a lesson and stifle any hope of a comeback. We did that by occupying them and imposing a political system on them.

  26. Katherine said:

    Blimpish – I misunderstood your comment. However, the analogy still does not work because in 1945 we were at the end of a 6 year land war where they had attempted to invade most of the rest of Europe including us and we had won. In the process their society had collapsed and their leaders had killed themselves. I’m failing to see the parallels with Iraq or Iran or any other Middle Eastern country here.

  27. Nazi Germany is an interesting example because the rise of facism, and the spread of its popularity, was in large measure an indirect result of the Treaty of Versailles (and the the other treaties which brought an end to the First World War). The behaviour of the victorious parties after WWI in seeking to crush German nationalism, imposing an unsustainable economic settlement, and creating weak and ineffective democratic institutions created the German resentment which Hitler was able to exploit. If we had been more visionary then about building on our common and shared interests and values, and less determined to crush those with whom we felt we had irreconcilable differences, then the catastrophe of the rise of facism and WWII might have been avoided altogether.

  28. Katherine said:

    Andrew, you said:

    “your wider point about this barring us from further action is just stupid”

    You have missed my point, if that is what you thought I meant. It rather depends I suppose on what you mean by action. The temptation is always to ‘do’ something, regardless of the fact that the consequences of ‘doing’ have frequently been disatrous. If by action you mean ‘invade’, ‘despose’ or otherwise try to impose our will and system of government, then yes, I’m saying that should not happen. The ‘action’ I would like to see tried is not to leap in and make decisions for others, not to take on the tired old ‘white man’s burden’. That might look, I suppose, like inaction – but sometimes not doing can be the better path than doing, although it might not seem as satisfying.

    As to your statement:

    “The point is that their problems have become our problems, because some of them decided to blow up some of us. At that point, as I said above, I really don’t give a crap about their rights to self-determination.”

    That sounds worryingly like collective punishment. Some of ‘them’ blow up some of ‘us’. ‘Their’ rights to self-determination go out the window, and thus the actions of a few result in consequences for the many. And, surprise surprise, some more of the many get pissed off.

    Obviously, I think we should care very much for self-determination of others. For reasons of principle – i.e. denying others the right to make their own decisions (whether they are right or wrong, in our view) is just plain wrong – but also because time and again intervention has proved to be self defeating. It has resulted in bitterness and resentment and some of them bring their problems to us.

    “Hopefully we’ve learnt our lessons and next time we’ll attach a higher priority to the post-war planning.”

    Except we’ve tried this before haven’t we. In Iraq. After the First World War. Hopefully we’ve learned our lessons? How many lives are you willing to stake on that hope? ‘Their’ lives obviously, not ours.

  29. Andrew said:

    ‘Their’ lives obviously, not ours.

    Yes, but it’s a left-wing transnationalist belief that other people’s lives are as valuable as our own. They’re self-evidently not, which is why we get pages and pages of newspaper coverage when a man is shot in London, but total apathy when kids are killed in Iraq. My opinion is that British lives are worth more to me, because I’m British, and I want to see Britains do well. It is for the governments of other countries to look after their own citizens. That ought to get some comments flowing… That is perhaps poorly expressed, but is another reason for having nation states – so that we can group together to defend our national interest. Other interests must necessarily come second.

    That sounds worryingly like collective punishment.

    Not at all – I don’t intend on punishing the Middle East. I’d rather free them and then leave them to get on with their own affairs, once stability, peace, democracy and freedom have taken root.

    That might look, I suppose, like inaction – but sometimes not doing can be the better path than doing, although it might not seem as satisfying.

    Perhaps, but not in this case. We have been inactive or passive towards the corrupt regimes in the Middle East for decades, and we are now reaping what we have sown. Time to get active, I think.

  30. Katherine said:

    Since I’m not a left-wing transnationalist, I don’t think that is an accurate definition of a belief that other people’s lives are as valuable as our own.

    And the view that other interests come second is exactly the short term view that gets us exactly where we are now. It was in our interests, apparently, to support the Shah of Iran, except that that resulted in the Iranian bitterness against the Western world, which lead to our view that it was in our interests, apparently, to support Saddam Hussein against Iran in the 80’s. But we reaped what we had sown there in the invasion of Kuwait, the presence of Western troops in Saudi Arabia… oops. It was

    “Not at all – I don’t intend on punishing the Middle East.”

    But you discounted and threw away their collective right to self-determination on the basis of the action of a smaller group of individuals.

    “We have been inactive or passive towards the corrupt regimes in the Middle East for decades, and we are now reaping what we have sown.”

    Unless you count funding, arming and politically supporting them perhaps? We agree that we are reaping what we have sown, but I think it is our action, not inaction that have caused the problems.

    I refer again to the fact that we’ve already tried nation building in Iraq once this century and that fell apart rapidly and catestrophically. Now we are making the same mistake again.

    The consequences of such things are completely unforseeable. Owen Barder makes an interesting point above about the rise of Nazism arising out of the Treaty of Versailles – do you imagine anyone in Europe thought that might happen? To assume that we can say ‘do this now and that will happen in the future’ is optimistic at best.

  31. Andrew said:

    And the view that other interests come second is exactly the short term view that gets us exactly where we are now.

    No, it’s the generally poor implementation of the consequences of that belief that has got us where we are now. Chiefly, that we didn’t consider the longer term damage we’d do to ourselves by going for short-term stability in the Middle East at the expense of freedoma and democracy.

    But you discounted and threw away their collective right to self-determination on the basis of the action of a smaller group of individuals.

    When I see a child playing with a box of matches and a can of petrol, I tend to think it’s responsible of me to remove one or both of those objects from his possession. That’s not a punishment – it’s responsibility.

    Owen Barder makes an interesting point above about the rise of Nazism arising out of the Treaty of Versailles

    and ignores the rise of modern Germany after WW2.

    To assume that we can say ‘do this now and that will happen in the future’ is optimistic at best.

    But this is precisely what you are doing – who is to say that Iraq will follow the WW1 path rather than the WW2 one? You certainly don’t know, and neither do I.

  32. Katherine said:

    “When I see a child playing with a box of matches and a can of petrol, I tend to think it’s responsible of me to remove one or both of those objects from his possession. That’s not a punishment – it’s responsibility.”

    This ignores the fact that our ‘adult’ attempts to say ‘we know best’ have failed again and again and again and again. How many chances to we get? How many times do we get to say it was poor implementation and we’ll get it right next time before we admit to ourselves that we have neither the political, military or cultural ability, nor the right, to mess around in other people’s countres? How many ‘next times’?

    To extend your analogy, it seems to me that we are the ones who have been playing with matches and petrol, except we’ve been pouring it out in other people’s back yards. Now that’s responsibility for you.

    “But this is precisely what you are doing – who is to say that Iraq will follow the WW1 path rather than the WW2 one? You certainly don’t know, and neither do I.”

    I don’t know what you mean by WW1 and WW2 paths I’m afraid. But I am suggesting that just for once, we try not to ‘do’ what we think is best for people, and leave them the hell alone instead of constantly interfering. We’ve tried one way, let’s try another. We can’t do much worse. Continuing to invade and and depose and attempt to control is just pouring more petrol on the already oil laden fire that everybody has been continually stoking for decades.

  33. Andrew said:

    WW1 path leads to Nazi Germany. This is not good.

    WW2 path leads to modern Germany. This is good.

    On your last paragraph, I’d be happy to leave them alone, if they left us alone and treated their people right. And they won’t.

  34. Katherine: we could easily have cut a deal with a German leadership to unite against the Soviets, and as for German society having collapsed – well, not so much that it wasn’t very quickly rebuilt. The state of Germany was in little worse a state at the start of 1945 than are many Islamic states.

    If you think – as your comment suggests you do – that we took over the running of Germany from some kind of welfare obligation, you’re horrendously naive. We took over the running of Germany to ensure that we kept them down for years to come; although we didn’t force reparations on them, we did limit them and divide them and promise to occupy them for the foreseeable future (we’re still there, in fact).

    And so, to reiterate my point, in conceptual terms as the history proves so icky for you: when nations side against us in war, which includes but is not limited to territorial invasion, then their wishes over future occupation or imposition of reforms are a rather minor concern for us.

  35. h4tess said:

    Prince Charles once said he wanted to be the Defender of Faiths, rather than Defender of the Faith. Perhaps the Henry VIII option is under consideration in some quarters.

  36. Katherine said:

    “I’d be happy to leave them alone, if they left us alone and treated their people right. And they won’t.”

    Unfortunately that just leads to ever increasing interference doesn’t it. They want us to leave them alone, we want them to leave us alone. So who goes first? I repectfully suggest that since we’ve interfered more there than they have here, by any count (including dead bodies, number of invasions etc etc), then perhaps we might make the first move. Our troops are there, not theirs here remember.

    And as for treating their people right, I agree that that is not something that can or should be left and ignored. But invading and/or imposing our will has consistently proven to be counterproductive in that regard. If we are so confident that our way is best, perhaps the way is to lead by example instead of leading by the nose.

    The truth is that, as I have been saying, no one can predict the outcome of any of this. A la post WW1 and WW2 Germany – who can tell which way the scales will tip? I don’t usually consider myself an isolationist, despite how it may appear, but I think that the worst kind of intervention is self-interested intervention by individual nation states.

  37. I’d say our policies are currently more in a post-WWI mindset than post-WWII, unfortunately.

    I don’t see a Marshall Plan to close the gap between rich and poor. I don’t see the building of multilateral institutions to preserve economic stability and human freedoms. I don’t see countries eschewing short term commercial or security interests in favour of longer term interests in stability and peace. I see a determination to defeat and humiliate, a desire to limit self-determination, and control natural resources. All rather like the end of WWI and which led, as night follows day, to the second World War.

  38. Katherine said:

    “when nations side against us in war, which includes but is not limited to territorial invasion, then their wishes over future occupation or imposition of reforms are a rather minor concern for us.”

    Which war are you talking about Blimpish? And which nations? Iraq? Iran?

    And no, I’m not so naive as to assume we did what we did with Germany post WW2 out of altruism and I don’t know where you got that idea from. I was simply pointing out that the circumstances – historically, politically and culturally – of post WW2 Europe and present day Middle East are so wildly different as to make any attempt at comparison meaningless.

  39. Katherine:

    If you want to bring it to specific cases, then yes, we can discuss Iraq. But my point was about the principle – if we think (as the British Government did with Iraq) that a nation has, by its actions, entered into a state of war against us, then it is normally seen that we are entitled not simply to ‘neutralise’ their capability to act against us, but to go much further, to prevent its re-emergence.

    This is not at all controversial in history. Like many, you seem to think that the example of Nazi Germany is completely unique; yet before that time, that kind of treatment was hardly abnormal. Maps were regularly redrawn and constitutions re-engineered as a result of war, for centuries past. So, fine, pick another historical example if you want; but the point remains – occupation and imposition of reform are normal tools of statecraft following the defeat of a nation we have identified as an enemy. You may think that these nations were not our enemy, or not sufficiently our enemy to justify our war-like behaviour; but that’s a different question to what we’re entitled to do to them if they are.

    You say:

    “They want us to leave them alone, we want them to leave us alone. So who goes first? I repectfully suggest that since we’ve interfered more there than they have here, by any count (including dead bodies, number of invasions etc etc), then perhaps we might make the first move. Our troops are there, not theirs here remember.”

    First, let’s clarify who ‘they’ are – are you talking about Islamic fundamentalists? Well, yes, our troops are ‘there’ if you think that Iraq is ‘their’ country – but I think most Iraqis would disagree with that. Or do you think all Arabs are basically ‘their’ country? (No, I didn’t think you did.)

    Second, why are we in Iraq? You might not think the reasons sufficient to justify the intervention, but if you cannot see the basic difference in motivation between why we are there and why Islamic terrorists have sought to kill and maim people like you, then you really ought to reflect for a moment. Even discussing our presence in Iraq as being on the same page as the actions of al-Qa’eda et al is simply bizarre.

    Are you seriously suggesting that the solution is one of Western quietism? That we should just ignore what goes on in the Middle East? That we should turn a blind eye to terrorist sponsorship? That we should be indifferent to Shariah oppression? That (let’s be honest) we shouldn’t care what happens in our main energy source? That if the whole of the Middle East fell into the grip of Caliphate-seeking Islamic fundamentalist nutcases, we should send a few bouquets and our best wishes for the future?

    All this fails to take Islamic terrorists seriously even on their own terms. Their objection isn’t simply to us for getting on their land, but because our very existence, in all its awful decadence, is an offence against God. They don’t hate us simply because we’re bigger and badder; they despise us because they think we are weak and pathetic – that for all our armies, they can still make us afraid. And your ‘answer’ is simply to confirm their suspicions, and in so doing to give them an even freer run in the Middle East.

    And when you say “I think that the worst kind of intervention is self-interested intervention by individual nation states” – first, what cases do you mean by this in the current context? Second, is that the worst kind of intervention really? If two countries gang up to destroy a third country and every single one of its citizens simply for ideological purposes, without any material gain in prospect, would that be better because it wasn’t a single country acting in self-interest? Funny old world if it is.

  40. James F said:

    Blimpish, Andrew,

    What do you make of ? Published in American Conservative, an interview with the academic who has carried out the most detailed ever study of suicide terrorism and who says:

    “Since suicide terrorism is mainly a response to foreign occupation and not Islamic fundamentalism, the use of heavy military force to transform Muslim societies over there, if you would, is only likely to increase the number of suicide terrorists coming at us.”

    Does this not confirm that dsquared’s hornets’ nest annalogy is indeed a good one?

  41. James F said:

    Well that first ever blog post went well…

  42. Andrew said:

    James: I tidied up your comment for you. Perhaps you’re right, but I think Blimpish has explained our position most accurately. Even if we could prevent suicide terrorism by withdrawal, it wouldn’t be a good idea for strategic reasons.

  43. Fight them abroad even though they’re going to fight us at home? You’re probably, conceptually, right. It’s the details of the how that are the bugger. And who the fuck “them” is. It’s like a big hall of mirrors out there. A source within the base would have been nice. Thanks Bush.

  44. Arnold Keswick said:

    I went and read the original post you cite under (i) and found you had somewhat misrepresented it. It makes no great claim to analysis and lists rather more possible explanations than you selectively misquote as ‘despair, poverty, alienation, and rootlessness’, which are in any case not offered as root causes of terrorism per se but of why people get involved in extremist politics in the first place, which is a very different question: the point that post appears to be making. Had you actually read it?

  45. Ben P said:

    Several unspoken assumption are threaded through this debate that I think are far from self-evident. (assuming that they are being assumed).

    One, that the removal of the current set of regimes will end Sunni jihadism.

    Two, that these nations are going to develop on paths towards greater “Westernization.” The political future in the Islamic world is Islamism. This doesn’t mean Al Qaeda, or something like it necessarily. But it does mean that groups like Dawa and SCIRI in Iraq, the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria and Egypt, Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, Hamas in Palestine are ascendent, not the other way round.

    Three, that Islam and the Islamic world posssesses some kind of absolute unity, and that “it” somehow attacked us. No, a group of Bolshevist madman attacked us – the “Islamic World” didn’t. That, say for example, creating a weak Shi’ite Islamic state in Iraq is going to anything to stop a movement its members are drawn from sects that hate Shi’ites. I could go on.

    Which leads to four, that a nation like Iraq had any real connection to the “root causes” of jihadism – either now or five years ago. Not for nothing, but no major terrorist attack on “western targets” in the current jihadi dispensation has been carried out by a) an Iraqi, and b) a Shi’ite Muslim.

  46. Ben P said:

    I should add: the problem isn’t terrorism. The problem is that a group of Wahhabi Jihadists have adopted the tactic of terrorism as a primary device in pursuing goals I find odious.

    Terrorism is a tactic that will continued to be used by other groups with completely different goals than Al Qaeda, as it has been previously. Primarily, because for groups without access to significant military hardware, terrorism is a “cost-effective” tactic.

    I think this distinction is more than simply one of semantics.

  47. No short term solutions to this one I’m afraid, but bombing the hell out of a lot of people and removing everyone’s civil liberties (like some on here suggest)is not the answer. Apart from being counter-productive, its not very nice!

    The only answer is long term. Lets not rip-off Iraqi oil revenues too much and let the Iraqis have their own oil and wealth in their own country. The sooner we pull out the better. We can see from Iran, that a decent increase in wealth will foster democracy (slowly). We should throw billions of dollars of investment at the Palestinians instead of at foreign wars, for christ sake there is only a few million of them, give them all a ferrari, they’ll soon **** Islam off!

    Anyway we’ll be alright in a couple of decades when the oil runs out because we wont need to invade the Arabs then.

  48. Andrew said:

    No short term solutions to this one I’m afraid, but bombing the hell out of a lot of people and removing everyone’s civil liberties (like some on here suggest)is not the answer.

    Hey, you voted for Labour, not me…

  49. George Carty said:

    The main reason why aggressive nationalism did not rise again in post-WWII Germany was because the Germans needed the Western Allies to protect it from the Soviet Union.

    After WWI by contrast Germany was perfectly capable of defending itself – or at least it would have been if it had not been artificially crippled by the Treaty of Versailles?

    What enemy would be scary enough to Iraqis that they’d accept Anglo-American occupation as the lesser evil? Israel doesn’t cut it as it’s too small. I’m beginning to think it’s a pity we don’t still have the Soviet Union around…