myths of the near future

But first, some zen propaganda:

US military commanders are planning to pull back their troops from Iraq’s towns and cities and redeploy them in four giant bases in a strategy they say is a prelude to eventual withdrawal.

Eventually, we all withdraw. In the light of the eventual heat death of the universe, nothing is permanent. There is only the way. That alone remains…

A lot of our post election discourse has been based around two proposals: that there will be a “post-Blair age” and that “Iraq won’t be an issue” by the time the next election rolls around. The above is evidence that Iraq may very well be an issue, unless the British forces are planning on doing a bunk.

I also don’t see much evidence that the first proposal is true, though there are plenty of signs that people within the Labour Party believe it to be true. But where’s the evidence? The only reason for him to go is if he can’t get his programme through. Getting his programme through on the understanding that he might go soon is a nifty trick, but it doesn’t commit him to anything. During the election he was Toxic Tony. Now we’re given to understand that only Tony can save the Labour Party and that the silent majority will not be silenced.

Let’s get something straight. Tony Blair changed the Labour party to the extent that it seems to be in permanent crisis because he wanted power. He got power and has shown every sign of liking power, of enjoying it for its on sweet sake. He wants to change the way we live, then point at the changes and say: ‘I did that.’ To paraphrase the gun rights people, the only way you’ll get power out of Tony is if you prize it from his cold, politically-dead fingers.

Look at it another way. Can you imagine him getting a job?

My predictions: at the next election, Iraq will be an issue. And our saviour and shepherd Tony Blair will still be leading us through an endless twilight of new dawns.

42 comments
  1. Tony Blair changed the Labour party to the extent that it seems to be in permanent crisis because he wanted power. He got power and has shown every sign of liking power, of enjoying it for its on sweet sake.

    Not just him. A whole generation of wonks and apparatchiks, and millions upon millions of Labour supporters, were (and still are, viz. tonight’s Dispatches) quite prepared to do whatever it takes to get power. Even to the extent that exactly what they wanted power to do became secondary.

    But I don’t think you need be so down… one day you will awake and over toast and marmelade will hear a news bulletin and he’ll be gone. You’ll feel the best you’ve felt since they dug the knife into Maggie’s back. And, after a year or so on honeymoon, the next generation of authoritarian apparatchiks will seize power and you ‘real’ Labour folk can carry on torturing yourselves…

  2. Garry said:

    My predictions: at the next election, Iraq will be an issue.

    It does seem that all the events we were told would bring stability to Iraq have been and gone. Killing Saddam’s sons, capturing Saddam, transfer of sovereignty, elections, forming a government…
    The violence just keeps escalating.
    And I wouldn’t be surprised if Afghanistan was an issue at the next election as well. It seems likely that the situation there is about to explode rather dramatically.

    And as for when Blair finally goes, I agree, he is determined to serve his full third term. His grasping fingers will need to be torn from the reigns of power. It remains to be seen whether the Labour Party has the bottle to do the deed.

  3. Garry: And I wouldn’t be surprised if Afghanistan was an issue at the next election as well.

    Me neither.

    And as for when Blair finally goes, I agree, he is determined to serve his full third term. His grasping fingers will need to be torn from the reigns of power. It remains to be seen whether the Labour Party has the bottle to do the deed.

    If Blair tries to fight the next election as Labour leader, expect to see him deposed — by Labour MPs desparate to retain their seats.

  4. Garry said:

    If Blair tries to fight the next election as Labour leader, expect to see him deposed — by Labour MPs desparate to retain their seats.

    I agree, but I think he will step down if he is still leader at the end of his third term. I’d rather the Labour Party gave him the heave long before that though.

  5. Andrew said:

    To paraphrase the gun rights people, the only way you’ll get power out of Tony is if you prize it from his cold, politically-dead fingers.

    You lefties used to say the same about Maggie in her heyday – that she’d never relinquish power voluntarily – but in the end all it took was a few whispers in her ear at the right time. Believe me, as my party faces the end of a decade or more in the wilderness, you’ll regret it once you plunge the knife in. On the right, a few of us find all this talk amazing. Sure, he’s a liability now, but in a couple of years he’ll be back on form. We know we can beat Gordon Brown. We’re not sure we can beat Tony Blair.

  6. Well, Labour isn’t really “my party” in the sense that I’m a disillusioned loyalist, though I was brought up ‘Labour’. As far as I’m coincerned, we’ve had solid rightwing government since 1979, hence the Conservative problem with displacing Blair. Personally I think that’s psychological. His popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep. Now he’s a sort of cult figure, as Nick Cohen pointed out the other week.

    The point about Thatcher was that she had a project. She could look back and say: this is my legacy. The Blairoids are dedicated to the notion of being first because it’s fun. Their general aim is to micromanage the population at large, because things are more managerial that way. There’s no cincinnatus effect here that can be called into play and no sense of loyalty to a party and a tradition that works against the sense of entitlement to power. This is why the government is so bad generally, beyond left/right political arguments ans also why Blair will stay for as long as he can, whatever the Labour Party thinks of him.

  7. Andrew said:

    Well, mile-wide and inch-deep popularity is what it takes to get elected with thumping majorities nowadays.

    I’d agree with the rest though – the danger of New Labour is that they believe in winning elections, and very little else.

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