Basra and the interchangeable Left
I’d been following Steven Vincent’s reports from Basra up until he was murdered last week. He’d come to my attention as just about the only Western journalist reporting from Southern Iraq.
The lack of news from the south of the country may have lulled some into thinking that that the region was tranquil. It is certainly much more peaceful than the area in and around Baghdad. But Vincent claimed that this “peace” had come at a price and it looks like trying to discover just what that price was cost him his life.
In what was to be his valediction, for the New York Times, Vincent was scathing about how the British in Basra have allowed the city and surrounding region to slip into fundamentalism and corruption:
As has been widely reported of late, Basran politics (and everyday life) is increasingly coming under the control of Shiite religious groups, from the relatively mainstream Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq to the bellicose followers of the rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Recruited from the same population of undereducated, underemployed men who swell these organizations’ ranks, many of Basra’s rank-and-file police officers maintain dual loyalties to mosque and state.
…
“No one trusts the police,” one Iraqi journalist told me. “If our new ayatollahs snap their fingers, thousands of police will jump.” Mufeed al-Mushashaee, the leader of a liberal political organization called the Shabanea Rebellion, told me that he felt that “the entire force should be dissolved and replaced with people educated in human rights and democracy.”
Unfortunately, that is precisely what the British aren’t doing. Fearing to appear like colonial occupiers, they avoid any hint of ideological indoctrination. In my time with them, not once did I see an instructor explain such basics of democracy as the politically neutral role of the police in a civil society. Nor did I see anyone question the alarming number of religious posters on the walls of Basran police stations. When I asked British troops if the security sector reform strategy included measures to encourage cadets to identify with the national government rather than their neighborhood mosque, I received polite shrugs: not our job, mate.
Which begs the question, if it’s not our job to instill democratic values and engender feelings of national pride in the Basran police, then whose is it? Why then did we invade?
In the ever-shifting reasons for invading Iraq, liberation, democratisation of the country and giving the people a better life than under Saddam were the ones our leaders and their supporters finally alighted on. So why have the people of Southern Iraq been abandoned to encroaching Islamism and gangsterism?
And to bring the argument home, who now speaks for the people of Basra in Britain? Before, during and after the invasion, those who were against the war were lambasted by those who were pro-war for abandoning the people of Iraq to their fate under Saddam. That was true for some but not all but that didn’t stop – notably – those on the Pro-War Left from lumping us all together as apologist and appeasers of the Baathist regime.
But those voices who shouted the loudest for Iraq’s liberation are now strangely silent now that the Iraqi people, previously lauded as a secular Muslim people with one of the most educated middle classes in the world, are slowly edging towards life under a different tyranny.
I’d offer that the Pro-War Left now find themselves in the same position as they placed the Anti-War Left before the war. The Anti-War Left were accused of forsaking the the people of Iraq to the depradations of Saddam, of taking a purely oppositional pose to the policy of Bush and Blair.
Now however, in the violent, bloody and botched aftermath of the war, we find it is the Pro-War Left who have abandoned the people of Iraq. I don’t recall an article by David Aaronovitch or Nick Cohen, or a post on Harry’s Place (and attendant “Decent Left” websites) condemning the wilfully blind eyes of the British-led military presence under which the current state of affairs in southern Iraq has been ushered. Perhaps someone can enlighten me otherwise.
Sure, everybody can speak out against suicide bombings but I’ve yet to see much condemnation of Steven Vincent’s death or the newly-introduced Islamist oppression of women. Maybe there are those who think that former Baathist officials deserve death by assassination at the hands of a corrupt police force but the death penalty wasn’t a major policy plank of the progressive Left the last time I looked. But then as Bertrand Russell notes in his Sceptical Essays, “the infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists.”
That said, even though many of the predictions made by the Anti-War Left before the war have since come to pass, you won’t find many of them saying “I told you so” or speaking out against the hardships now being visited upon the Iraqi people either. Both the Pro-War and Anti-War Left are united in a dismissive shrug. The Antis say, “Iraq is in the past. It is now our job to make sure it never happens again somewhere else.” The Pros are busy accusing the Antis of supporting suicide bombers at home and abroad and anyway, it doesn’t serve their arguments to study the problems (Islamism, corruption and all) that their liberal intervention has brought to Iraq.
At the end of the day, this nit-picking over the stance of the various flavours of Left is dry, appeals to a narrow constituency and as Jamie at Blood & Treasure says:
“What Iraq means for the left” is, shall we say, at the very end of a very long list of relevant questions arising from the situation there?
(…and this is just about my last word on the subject. The “Progressive” Left is screwed. For a movement born out of compassion for others it is showing precious little of that commodity at the moment, in any its splinters, flavours and castes.)
Steven Vincent had lived in Basra for months and charted the decline in the people’s safety and freedoms. Where is the democracy that our awesome firepower was supposed to have given the Iraqi people? The British in Basra have sacrificed it in the name of a dubious stability. Last year, radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was a dangerous bogeyman according to the coalition. In April 2004, Tony Blair said of him:
Moqtada al-Sadr does not represent, however, the vast majority of Iraq’s Shias. He doesn’t represent any of the values of the new Iraq. He represents a small band of extremists, he surrounds himself with an armed militia, and there’s absolutely no place for armed militias in the new Iraq. Iraq should be governed by democracy, not by militias or by demagoguery.
Now – if reports are to be believed – al-Sadr’s men control large parts of Basra with British acquiescence.
There are those who have found it difficult to summon sympathy for Vincent, a man shot three times in the head. He’s been called naive. He was certainly something of an idealist but that’s not a capital crime yet. He’s been been criticised for a romantic attachment to the Western values he wanted to see brought to Iraq, most notably greater respect for women.
But with Vincent dead, who now speaks for the people of Basra? The British Left? Not our job, mate.
It should be pointed out, I think, that the people of Basra voted by an overwhelming majority for the SCIRI. They apparently know who they want to speak for them, and it sure as hell isn’t Nick Cohen. It would seem to be the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, through the medium of either the Sadrites or SCIRI.
I would query whether or not it is morally better to Fallujahise Basra, as we would end up doing if we were to demand a purge of the police (if we had enough troops – it’s a big place), or to accept the realities of a conservative Shia society. Putting yourself in their shoes, you might not like those realities, you might not want to live in them – but would you really prefer to die by 120mm shell fragments instead?
The whole “are we doing enough to support decent Iraqi democrats” debate seems to me to be an entirely Anglo-British (by analogy with “Franco-Francais”) story – whatever we do, the Iraqi democratic Left (or Right, I’m sure there must be someone somewhere answering that description) is going to lose, and whatever feeble support the denizens of Harry’s muster will do nothing to change that. The Iraqi secularists are like the non-communist nationalists of Vietnam – “une douzaine de messieurs”, three students and a dog. They are not a viable constituency in Iraqi politics outside Kurdistan.
In fact, the only successful faction in Iraq that offered anything like a Western society was the Ba’ath. (snark)I don’t see the Decent Left signing up to fight with the Sunni guerrillas – anyway, they couldn’t feed David Aaronovitch for more than a couple of days without attracting attention. There aren’t enough pies in Iraq for that. (/snark)
Unfortunately, the best form of support the British Left can offer secular Iraqis would be to countersign their applications for political asylum. I think someone suggested this recently – perhaps we could get a Pledgebank going?
Although this doesn’t alter your central point, it has been suggested that Vincent’s murder was prompted by his public declaration that he was dating his interpreter, a woman who angered the community by refusing to wear a headscarf, and saying he was going to marry her to get her a visa to the US. As I said, doesn’t alter your point, but still, an example of the extremism you talk about.
Alex, considering fatwas were issued directing Shias how to vote, it’s no surprise SCIRI got the majority. Whether we could call that democratic is another matter, I suppose
I’d argue that the “are we doing enough to support decent Iraqi democrats” debate should be an internationalist one not just an Anglo-British. The Pro-War Left have accused the Anti-War Left of abandoning the internationalist roots of the Leftwing movement. Now it seems, the Pro-War faction have turned their backs on those values as well.
If nothing else, it mystifies me why more people aren’t concerned about this purely for reasons of realpolitik. How does anybody regard a putative Iraqi Shia theocracy tightly aligned with Iran as a decent outcome of all this?
Which begs the question, if it’s not our job to instill democratic values and engender feelings of national pride in the Basran police, then whose is it?
It’s the job of the iraqi people and the government they elected. A government that consists mostly of the sort of religious people you decry. If the Iraqis want to be ruled by religious conservatives, that’s their soveriegn right, no matter if you or I think they’re nuts to want it.
Why then did we invade?
I thought we’d gone over that?
Bush invaded to control the oil, Blair joined in because he wanted to be Bush’s poodle. Bush doesn’t give a rat’s arse about democracy and human rights in Iraq (or anywhere else). Blair probably does but in a complex Blairite way.
I don’t recall […] a post on Harry’s Place (and attendant “Decent Left†websites) condemning the wilfully blind eyes of the British-led military presence under which the current state of affairs in southern Iraq has been ushered.
Of course not. Wouldn’t fit in with the groupthink.
Justin: If nothing else, it mystifies me why more people aren’t concerned about this purely for reasons of realpolitik.
I think the dangers are exaggerated. What’s the worst that could happen, in geopolitical terms? A theocracy comes to power in Iraq (albeit one that operates with the veneer of democratic elections), allies with Iran, and they jointly develop nuclear weapons.
Are they going to use them against us? Very unlikely — no-one has ever used nuclear weapons agains a nuclear-weapon state, for reasons that ought to be obvious.
Are they going to stop selling us oil? Also unlikely, they’d ruin their economies if they tried.
Phil: My point is *do* the Iraqis want to be ruled religious conservatives? As I said, with elections being conducted under fatwas from clerics, it seems to me that many Iraqis had that choice taken away from them.
The British forces’ choice of the easy rather than the right course of action has led to the police being infiltrated by Sadr-ists who now seem to be running Basra as some kind of fiefdom. Nobody got to vote on that.
The fact is that none, absolutely none, of the reasons for going to war now hold water. No WMD and torture and state-sanctioned murder are rife. It’s 1991 all over again.
To add extra spice, it looks like the women of the country – previously allowed to largely wear what they wanted and walk the streets alone – are going to be living under the veil, frightened to leave the house. Stonings, beatings and honour killings are going to be next season’s colours.
I seem to remember that being one of the reasons for the war before last when the Taliban got their P45s. Do we give it six months and push over these new johnnies in Baghdad?
Phil: Are they going to use them against us?
Maybe not. But that begs the question who might they use them against. Maybe a non-Muslim nuclear power not too far away? That would have geopolitical ramifications. An Iraq/Iran theocracy don’t even have to get the bomb to cause waves as this week’s fuss over Iran restarting its nuclear programme shows.
As for the oil, with Iran and China making diplomatic spoons and the Chinese consumer economy about to go nova, I don’t think Iran/Iraq would have problems shifting the oil if they decided not to sell to us.
Justin: My point is *do* the Iraqis want to be ruled religious conservatives?
Most do, if the result of the January election is anything to go by.
As I said, with elections being conducted under fatwas from clerics, it seems to me that many Iraqis had that choice taken away from them.
If religion hadn’t been influential in Iraq, the fatwas wouldn’t have had significant effect. To put it another way: if people want to do something because religious leaders tell them to, then they want religious-led government.
The British forces’ choice of the easy rather than the right course of action has led to the police being infiltrated by Sadr-ists who now seem to be running Basra as some kind of fiefdom. Nobody got to vote on that.
The Sadrists and other religious factions, such as SCIRI, between them seem to have the support of most people in Basra.
But that begs the question who might [Iraq] use [nuclear weapons] against. Maybe a non-Muslim nuclear power not too far away?
I doubt it.
As for the oil, with Iran and China making diplomatic spoons and the Chinese consumer economy about to go nova, I don’t think Iran/Iraq would have problems shifting the oil if they decided not to sell to us.
It makes no difference who they sell it to since there is one market for oil worldwide. Of course, it the Yanks had been sensible and taken measures to reduce energy consumption, like Europeans have, we’d be in a better position today.
The problem is that a large majority of the people there chose to obey the fatwa; that is, they believe the ayatollah was right. Where d’you think al-Sadr got so many men?
Alex: But my point is that once the fatwa is declared, the fix is in.
You’re probably right when you say a large majority believe the ayatollah was right but with it being an Islamic crime to defy a fatwa, democratic rights were taken away from those who didn’t.
Surely, though, if you are going to vote Secular you’re also not going to listen to Ayatollahs? At least not if you’re internally consistent. This reminds me a little of the apocryphal tale of the Army officer in Northern Ireland who said something along the lines of “And then the riot suddenly broke up – they just vanished as soon as we got there. Where on earth did they go?”
The answer was, of course, into the houses the rioters came from. Given the electoral stats, I suspect all the people in Basra who could reasonably be expected to vote for “secular” if it was a party (which in this case meant Iyad “Al-Ba’athi” Allawi, more’s the pity) did – about 10-15%, plus a point or so of communists and such. A significant minority, but not significant enough to determine Iraq’s basic direction in a time of mass politics.
One shouldn’t accept everything the Americans say about the “soft British” without a pinch, nay, a truckload of salt – in the Sadr uprising last year the brigade out there managed to fire 100,000 rounds of rifle ammo in a month, engage in the longest continuous battle the British Army has fought since Korea, deploy Challenger 2 tanks, AC130s and fast jets, and receive a couple of Victoria Crosses. The price of retaining any territorial control was to divide the surviving Sadrists – up north, the Americans retook the urban centres by batter and storm (remember them driving tanks around the cemetery in Najaf?) and then found they didn’t have the manpower to extend that control beyond them.
The only guarantee of any degree of secularity being written into the Iraqi constitution, or more importantly being put in effect, is the fact the Kurds consider it a prerequisite for staying in Iraq and not declaring civil war.
The only pro-War justification remaining is the benefit for the Iraqi people. If the only benefit was replacing a secular despot with a hardline theocracy (is that a benefit?), then the war has been a disaster on every level.
Should we let them have a theocracy if that’s what they want? I think we should try to stop that happening, although it may be difficult to do anything in practice that isn’t counter-productive in the long run.
“If the Iraqis want to be ruled by religious conservatives, that’s their soveriegn right”
If they want to stone people to death for offending their religious values then should we stand aside and let them do so? I don’t believe so. Some habits need to be stamped out, not ignored or condoned. I don’t subscribe to cultural relativism. That’s not to say that Western culture is necessarily superior in terms of the whole package – there’s plenty of things wrong with our culture too, but ditching medieval moral codes and punishments isn’t one of them.
Phil: It makes no difference who they sell it to since there is one market for oil worldwide.
Just hypothetically… imagine that global oil demand begins to exceed global oil production capacity. If someone has to do without the stuff, then those selling it are presented with a choice. They can retain the global single market (and whoever pays the most gets the oil) or they can choose who they sell their oil to based on political as well as economic considerations.
Given that Venezuela is already selling oil to Cuba at knock-down prices, and bearing in mind the willingness of Gulf producers to politicise their resource (as happened twice in the 70s), it would be foolish to imagine that oil producers will always sell to the highest bidder.
With China and Russia currently engaged in their first ever joint military exercises; with both nations applying pressure on the Central Asian Republics to sever ties with Washington and evict US military bases from their territory; as well as the aforementioned Iranian co-operation agreements with both, as they watch the US army get bogged down next door and remove the seals from their nuclear facilities… it seems sensible to expect an increasing politicisation of the oil market over the next few years.
All hypothetically of course. If demand never outstrips supply, there’s probably nothing to worry about except catastophic climate change.
Jim B – I think that there is no point at which demand exceeds supply. Price will always act to bring them in line. If next year 10% less oil was produced then demand would have to drop 10% too, and this would be because the price would rise until such a point that 10% of buyers were put off, and found another alternative or didn’t carry out the activity that they needed it for at all. This could require an amazingly high price change, most of us could probably cut 10% of our oil use without really feeling it, but then we start getting choices like no foreign holidays, not driving to work, not eating imported food etc. At that point bidding could become pretty ferocious.
Your core point is really important, and not much discussed. At the moment we pay a very small scarcity premium on top of the cost of getting it out of the ground. At some point in the future, which may be more or less now, oil is going to get more and more expensive. Some of this will due to deeper drilling etc. but much will be straight profit for the supplying countries. As you say they might choose to use some of this financial bounty for political favours by selling at a discount to people they like.
This is pretty much a ‘when’ not ‘if’ scenario. Oil substitutes are expensive and incomplete, and every barrel pumped is a barrel less in the ground. The only question is how rapidly depletion will occur, what alternatives will be available, and how ready countries are to use military means to secure it.
This is the problem you get when you try to “give” someone liberty. The first time someone even moderately threatens then, they throw it away with both hands. Don’t get me wrong, I think that Iraqis are just as genetically capable of embracing liberty as anyone. But, until they are culturaly ready to sacrifice their lives to protect their freedom, then no lasting freedom can be given to them. This is the weak point in the entire argument that we invaded Iraq to spread democracy–the best we could have accomplished is a completely dependent democratic colony.
Pingback: The Sharpener » Slouching towards realism