Comments on: The new new Europe

By: Bondwoman

Bondwoman — Sat, 15 Jul 2006 21:36:26 +0000

I certainly donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t doubt the idiocy of CameronÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s original promise or the opportunism of his discovery of new long grass into which to kick it. But what astounds me is the consistent ignorance of the workings of European politics, in the sense of the interplay of both the supranational level and the national levels of politics and political discussion, that has been displayed. Were they surprised by the reaction of politicians such as Merkel? Have they talked much to the really atlanticist Polish Christian Democrats in Civic Platform rather than the rather absurd PiS party? And if they have, have they then discovered why there is no point even trying to winkle the Civic Platform out the EPP (on the contrary Civic Platform, like many other conservative groupings within the EPP is desperate for them to stay, and to change the EPP from within)? So it is no surprise there is nothing happening now. But I agree that post 2009, all bets are off, but the analysis needs to take into account the quite severe shaking up that the taken-for-granted system of the PES, EPP, ELDR, plus a few small others, might take post 2009 given the number of MEPs elected in the new Member States, many of whom belong to parties which do not conform to the basic tripartite system of the PES, EPP, ELDR division (at least for the purposes of dividing up most posts in the European Parliament). But perhaps the biggest motivating factor for all this is not only the possibility of having enough members to be a group within the EP, but also the possibility of being big enough to be a Ã¢â‚¬Ëœtransnational political partyÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ with funding under the EU budget. This has already led to a splintering of the EU party system with new political parties challenging the PES, EPP, ELDR hegemony. Things may be very different after 2009.

By: Jonn

Jonn — Thu, 13 Jul 2006 17:01:16 +0000

Steve:
I donÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t think Cameron ever intended to pull out of the EPP. He he took a gamble – promising to do it but betting that events would move on so that he didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t have to.

I suspect you’re right, and think it’s something we’ve seen before in relation to Europe: did Blair really think he could win the constitution referendum, or was he gambling that the thing would collapse before it came to that?

…which is another point for the “Cameron is the new Blair” theory, really.

By: Steve

Steve — Thu, 13 Jul 2006 15:42:19 +0000

I reckon you are right – this has got Cameron out of a hole.

He had to make the EPP withdrawal pledge to get anti-Euro support in the Tory leadership election. But he is intelligent enough to know that pledging to pull out of the EPP but to stay in the EU gives the worst of both worlds – continued EU membership but with no influence. Plus, as you say, things are now moving the Tory way in Europe.

I don’t think Cameron ever intended to pull out of the EPP. He he took a gamble – promising to do it but betting that events would move on so that he didn’t have to.