Red D: actually, I disagree. Labour would need very few transfers from UKIP to achieve a quota, which might well effect their choice of candidate, interestingly. Plus, it’s impossible to say what the impact of a popular local MP able to collect votes from all over would be, or of parties over- or under-estimating their likely vote and fielding too many/too few candidates, or of unused votes from a whole bunch of minor parties I didn’t list in my table. I stick by my assertion in the piece: what might happen under STV is informed guesswork, but it’s still basically guessing.
]]>Looking at your Cornwall seat, the Droop quota for that election would be 41,936 votes so Labour wouldn’t get a seat, and my bet is that would go 3 lib dem 2 Tory (Tories just shy of two quotas, so they wouldn’t need many transfers from Labour, even if the bulk went to the Lib-Dems).
You can do this because the experience, certainly of Malta, is that people tend to be party loyal…
]]>I’m not sure how big a problem this is. The Italian experience (post-1993) does suggest that, once you’ve started making changes to the electoral system, the tweaking – and the cries of injustice – can go on for years if not decades. Then again, none of the Italian election results – or the resulting governments – have been challenged as invalid (the courts were involved in 2001, briefly and in a way which didn’t affect the overall result; in any case, the problem was the way the political parties ‘gamed’ the system rather than the system itself). The system hasn’t been delegitimated, in other words – it’s just been lined up for another round of tweaking. I think that’s a tolerable prospect, even if the exaggerated hopes raised in the process are likely to get a bit tedious – “now we’re going to get it right!”…
]]>I like the way you have re-christened PR ‘fair votes’ – but isn’t this slighlty disingenuous? What you are talking about, surely, is ‘fairer votes’, for neither you nor any other serious observer is arguing for a purely proportionate system.
And therein lies the rub. If you go for a system that is less than 100% proportionate, you will always get someone who loses out. So the pressure for change will be always with you – small parties will always emerge who feel justifiably cheated that their representatives are not in the Commons. At the moment, such claims can be countered by the fact that FPTP is the system we’ve always had, and the sheer inertia and conservatism of the country. But once you have accepted that change is possible, how do you go about finding a system that is fair, but not too fair, and has the simplicity, transparency and universal acceptance needed to survive?
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